ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - Has Richard Russell finally thrown in the towel on his long-standing bearishness?
Richard Russell, of course, is editor of Dow Theory Letters, and the granddaddy of the investment newsletter world. He has been editing his newsletter continuously since 1958, nearly 50 years ago, longer than any other newsletter editor still publishing.
He's seen a lot of bull and bear markets, in other words. And his long-term record is superb. According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, his timing signals for the stock market's major trend rank at the top for risk-adjusted performance since 1980, when the HFD began monitoring the industry.
Nevertheless, Russell has failed to extend diplomatic recognition to the bull market that began in October 2002, arguing instead that a major bear market that began in late 1999 was still in progress. Fellow columnist Peter Brimelow even took to referring to Russell as a "grump."
Now read what Russell wrote last night on his website:
"We saw something that is extremely rare [on April 20 and April 25], in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages -- Industrials ($INDU : Dow Jones Industrial Average, Transports ($TRAN : Dow Jones Transportation Average, and Dow Jones Utilities Index actual values closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder... My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead." Russell acknowledges that what he has written will surprise many who are accustomed to his long-standing caution about the stock market. He imagines that we will want to respond by saying "But Russell, you're usually so conservative, so restrained. How can you possibly talk this way? Now you're talking about a worldwide boom. Are you smoking something we don't know about?"
Russell's response:
"I stopped smoking over 40 year ago. No, I'm simply relating to you my interpretation of what the market is saying. I believe the markets talk in their own secret language. And when the market does something that has never been done before, that serves as a 'kick in the pants' for me. It's telling me, 'Russell, wake up. Something very unusual is going on. Get up out of your chair -- and pay attention'."
