Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Monday, November 10, 2008
Peter Schiff - Obama Victory Will Not Save U.S. Dollar Collapse
Peter Schiff has been right about a lot of things over the last few years. He predicted the Housing collapse, credit crisis, and the fall of the U.S. dollar. In the short-term, his resource and gold calls have been proven wrong as commodities have been hammered along with all other stocks. In this radio interview, he discusses the impending dollar collapse and the fact that Obama can't save the U.S. economy. He makes some very compelling points, worth noting.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Case Shiller Update
I've posted the Case-Shiller Index on numerous occasions but now that the meltdown in housing is a reality, it's time to project where the bottom in housing may be and when it can be expected. Always remember that "reversion to the mean" is always predictable when valuations get out of control and it is NEVER "different this time". A new generation of investors learn this valuable lesson to pass on to the next generation.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
How The Market Really Works!
This comedy routine from 2007, spells out how the current market crisis evolved. If you don't think that the markets are predictable, wait for the last line of the segment. Does this sound familiar?
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Biggest Dow Point Drop Ever!
Monday, September 29, 2008
House To Street: Drop Dead
Commentary: Uneasy Republicans couldn't stomach massive bailout
In a stunning vote on Monday, the House rejected the financial rescue package on a vote of 205 to 228. Republicans voted against the bill by a two-to-one ratio, and in the process rejected their own leadership, who had worked for nearly a week to craft a bill that could gain a majority. Nearly 100 Democrats also voted against the bill, spurning their leadership.
Many Republicans in the House were never persuaded that the credit crunch in the financial system is an impending disaster deserving of taxpayer aid. Politicians who had cut their teeth on free-market principles couldn't accept the idea that the federal government should back up the banks who had foolishly bet everything on the housing bubble.
Or they didn't want to face the voters in six weeks and explain why a Republican would vote for the biggest government bailout ever.
Now we shall see if Paulson and Bernanke were right when they said the credit crisis could worsen and inflict dire consequences on the global economy. Or perhaps the plan's many critics were right in saying that credit markets and home prices can adjust on their own, once the promise of free money is withdrawn.
The leaders in Congress and in the administration will undoubtedly try again, hoping to write a compromise bill that can attract a majority. But that won't be easy, because the Paulson plan had significant opposition from backbenchers on both the Republican right and the Democratic left.
Rejection of the plan means there's no political solution to this financial crisis on the horizon. As it now stands, the markets are on their own.
The next six weeks will tell whether the coup d'etat in the House on Monday has created a political crisis to match the financial one.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Hurricane "Shitstorm"!
Saturday, September 20, 2008
America - The New Socialist Reality
Here is Bush's 3-page proposal for the $700 Billion bailout. Socialism Rules! This is the saddest day in the history of Capitalism!
LEGISLATIVE PROPOSAL FOR TREASURY AUTHORITY TO PURCHASE MORTGAGE-RELATED ASSETS
Section 1. Short Title.
This Act may be cited as ____________________.
Sec. 2. Purchases of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Authority to Purchase.--The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States.
(b) Necessary Actions.--The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation:
(1) appointing such employees as may be required to carry out the authorities in this Act and defining their duties;
(2) entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code, without regard to any other provision of law regarding public contracts;
(3) designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Government, and they shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Government as may be required of them;
(4) establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase mortgage-related assets and issue obligations; and
(5) issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities of this Act.
Sec. 3. Considerations.
In exercising the authorities granted in this Act, the Secretary shall take into consideration means for--
(1) providing stability or preventing disruption to the financial markets or banking system; and
(2) protecting the taxpayer.
Sec. 4. Reports to Congress.
Within three months of the first exercise of the authority granted in section 2(a), and semiannually thereafter, the Secretary shall report to the Committees on the Budget, Financial Services, and Ways and Means of the House of Representatives and the Committees on the Budget, Finance, and Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate with respect to the authorities exercised under this Act and the considerations required by section 3.
Sec. 5. Rights; Management; Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Exercise of Rights.--The Secretary may, at any time, exercise any rights received in connection with mortgage-related assets purchased under this Act.
(b) Management of Mortgage-Related Assets.--The Secretary shall have authority to manage mortgage-related assets purchased under this Act, including revenues and portfolio risks therefrom.
(c) Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets.--The Secretary may, at any time, upon terms and conditions and at prices determined by the Secretary, sell, or enter into securities loans, repurchase transactions or other financial transactions in regard to, any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act.
(d) Application of Sunset to Mortgage-Related Assets.--The authority of the Secretary to hold any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act before the termination date in section 9, or to purchase or fund the purchase of a mortgage-related asset under a commitment entered into before the termination date in section 9, is not subject to the provisions of section 9.
Sec. 6. Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.
The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time
Sec. 7. Funding.
For the purpose of the authorities granted in this Act, and for the costs of administering those authorities, the Secretary may use the proceeds of the sale of any securities issued under chapter 31 of title 31, United States Code, and the purposes for which securities may be issued under chapter 31 of title 31, United States Code, are extended to include actions authorized by this Act, including the payment of administrative expenses. Any funds expended for actions authorized by this Act, including the payment of administrative expenses, shall be deemed appropriated at the time of such expenditure.
Sec. 8. Review.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
Sec. 9. Termination of Authority.
The authorities under this Act, with the exception of authorities granted in sections 2(b)(5), 5 and 7, shall terminate two years from the date of enactment of this Act.
Sec. 10. Increase in Statutory Limit on the Public Debt.
Subsection (b) of section 3101 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by striking out the dollar limitation contained in such subsection and inserting in lieu thereof $11,315,000,000,000.
Sec. 11. Credit Reform.
The costs of purchases of mortgage-related assets made under section 2(a) of this Act shall be determined as provided under the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990, as applicable.
Sec. 12. Definitions.
For purposes of this section, the following definitions shall apply:
(1) Mortgage-Related Assets.--The term "mortgage-related assets" means residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.
(2) Secretary.--The term "Secretary" means the Secretary of the Treasury.
(3) United States.--The term "United States" means the States, territories, and possessions of the United States and the District of Columbia. To top of page
LEGISLATIVE PROPOSAL FOR TREASURY AUTHORITY TO PURCHASE MORTGAGE-RELATED ASSETS
Section 1. Short Title.
This Act may be cited as ____________________.
Sec. 2. Purchases of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Authority to Purchase.--The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States.
(b) Necessary Actions.--The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation:
(1) appointing such employees as may be required to carry out the authorities in this Act and defining their duties;
(2) entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code, without regard to any other provision of law regarding public contracts;
(3) designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Government, and they shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Government as may be required of them;
(4) establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase mortgage-related assets and issue obligations; and
(5) issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities of this Act.
Sec. 3. Considerations.
In exercising the authorities granted in this Act, the Secretary shall take into consideration means for--
(1) providing stability or preventing disruption to the financial markets or banking system; and
(2) protecting the taxpayer.
Sec. 4. Reports to Congress.
Within three months of the first exercise of the authority granted in section 2(a), and semiannually thereafter, the Secretary shall report to the Committees on the Budget, Financial Services, and Ways and Means of the House of Representatives and the Committees on the Budget, Finance, and Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate with respect to the authorities exercised under this Act and the considerations required by section 3.
Sec. 5. Rights; Management; Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Exercise of Rights.--The Secretary may, at any time, exercise any rights received in connection with mortgage-related assets purchased under this Act.
(b) Management of Mortgage-Related Assets.--The Secretary shall have authority to manage mortgage-related assets purchased under this Act, including revenues and portfolio risks therefrom.
(c) Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets.--The Secretary may, at any time, upon terms and conditions and at prices determined by the Secretary, sell, or enter into securities loans, repurchase transactions or other financial transactions in regard to, any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act.
(d) Application of Sunset to Mortgage-Related Assets.--The authority of the Secretary to hold any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act before the termination date in section 9, or to purchase or fund the purchase of a mortgage-related asset under a commitment entered into before the termination date in section 9, is not subject to the provisions of section 9.
Sec. 6. Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.
The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time
Sec. 7. Funding.
For the purpose of the authorities granted in this Act, and for the costs of administering those authorities, the Secretary may use the proceeds of the sale of any securities issued under chapter 31 of title 31, United States Code, and the purposes for which securities may be issued under chapter 31 of title 31, United States Code, are extended to include actions authorized by this Act, including the payment of administrative expenses. Any funds expended for actions authorized by this Act, including the payment of administrative expenses, shall be deemed appropriated at the time of such expenditure.
Sec. 8. Review.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
Sec. 9. Termination of Authority.
The authorities under this Act, with the exception of authorities granted in sections 2(b)(5), 5 and 7, shall terminate two years from the date of enactment of this Act.
Sec. 10. Increase in Statutory Limit on the Public Debt.
Subsection (b) of section 3101 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by striking out the dollar limitation contained in such subsection and inserting in lieu thereof $11,315,000,000,000.
Sec. 11. Credit Reform.
The costs of purchases of mortgage-related assets made under section 2(a) of this Act shall be determined as provided under the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990, as applicable.
Sec. 12. Definitions.
For purposes of this section, the following definitions shall apply:
(1) Mortgage-Related Assets.--The term "mortgage-related assets" means residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.
(2) Secretary.--The term "Secretary" means the Secretary of the Treasury.
(3) United States.--The term "United States" means the States, territories, and possessions of the United States and the District of Columbia. To top of page
The $700 Billion Bailout
When I started this blog in 2005, I posted articles and offered opinions on the state of the economy and the inevitable collapse of the Housing Bubble. As the blog progressed, I predicted the inevitable failure and potential collapse of the entire financial system. Three years later, we are finally here. I have been posting less over the past year as my predictions have been proven correct. I will leave this blog up as a testament to the predictability of events and to show the power of the blogosphere. As the mainstream media had their heads buried in the sand and the supposed "Financial Experts" claimed that all was well, it was the bloggers that uncovered the true problems in the financial system and hopefully we helped millions of investors make the right decisions to avoid the economic pain that is likely to follow. Good Luck to Us all!
The legacy of Bush is now cemented.
Bush wants OK to spend $700B
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President Bush has asked Congress for the authority to spend as much as $700 billion to purchase troubled mortgage assets and contain the financial crisis.
The legislative proposal - the centerpiece of what would be the most sweeping economic intervention by the government since the Great Depression - was sent by the White House overnight to lawmakers. (Read the text here.)
President Bush said Saturday that the plan matches the scope of the problem.
"It is a big package because it's a big problem," he told reporters at a joint news conference with Alvaro Uribe, the president of Colombia.
"The risk of doing nothing far outweighs the risk of the package," Bush said.
The legacy of Bush is now cemented.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Mortgage Relief Bill Provisions
Friday, August 08, 2008
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Hydrogen Is The Wave of The Future...in 1978!
Watch Jack Nicholson demonstrate the "Wave of The Future" in Hydrogen Fuel technology.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
The Peter Schiff Mortgage Bankers Speech (November 2006)
In 2006, Peter Schiff made a very important speech to a group of soon-to-be-unemployed mortgage brokers. He laid out the groundwork of how America got into the huge mess that they are currently in and he correctly predicted the housing crash/credit crunch that we are now experiencing. Watch all 8 parts of the speech to get a good grasp of the current economic problems that we are facing. They were both predictable and inevitable. The problem was always knowing when they were finally going to hit. The delays are only going to make things worse. Enjoy.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7
Part 8
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7
Part 8
Friday, July 25, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Fertilizer Prices Increase 235% Over Past Year
Schwarzenegger Threatens Minimum Wage for State Workers
Mass Woman Kills Self Over Foreclosed Home
Back Half of the 500 Year Housing Hurricane - It Only Gets Worse
Newsweek: Why It's Worse Than You Think
No Bottom Yet for Ailing Financials
More Banks Skirting Failure
Ford: $9 Billion Loss
Schwarzenegger Threatens Minimum Wage for State Workers
Mass Woman Kills Self Over Foreclosed Home
Back Half of the 500 Year Housing Hurricane - It Only Gets Worse
Newsweek: Why It's Worse Than You Think
No Bottom Yet for Ailing Financials
More Banks Skirting Failure
Ford: $9 Billion Loss
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Monday, July 14, 2008
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Monday, July 07, 2008
Investors Anxiety Builds as Retirement Next Egg Shows Cracks
WSJ: The Credit Crisis is Going to Get Worse
Is This Economy Worse than Past Recessions?
As Inflation Soars, Elderly Face Starvation
Fed's Credibility on the Line
Fleck: Global Economy Won't Bail Out the US
European Manufacturing Drops as Growth Slows
Shares Tumble as Global Bear Takes Grip
How Bad Can it Get?
WSJ: The Credit Crisis is Going to Get Worse
Is This Economy Worse than Past Recessions?
As Inflation Soars, Elderly Face Starvation
Fed's Credibility on the Line
Fleck: Global Economy Won't Bail Out the US
European Manufacturing Drops as Growth Slows
Shares Tumble as Global Bear Takes Grip
How Bad Can it Get?
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Global Stocks Close Dismal First Half; Outlook Grim
BIS: Global Economy Could Face Deeper Downturn
UK House Prices Won't Recover Until 2015!
Fleck: The End of the Superbubble
Credit Card Crisis Next for America
Kunstler: Not Your Grandma's Depression
A Look at An Unsustainable Advance (Oil) and A Double Non-Confirmation (Dow Theory)
The Greenspan Gamble and the Rise of the "Super Fed"
GM Shares Near 54 Year Low
Chrysler to Close Another Plant, Reduce Output
Detroit's Mood Grim as Automakers Face the Brink
Remember What Happened to England's Once Thriving Auto Industry?
BIS: Global Economy Could Face Deeper Downturn
UK House Prices Won't Recover Until 2015!
Fleck: The End of the Superbubble
Credit Card Crisis Next for America
Kunstler: Not Your Grandma's Depression
A Look at An Unsustainable Advance (Oil) and A Double Non-Confirmation (Dow Theory)
The Greenspan Gamble and the Rise of the "Super Fed"
GM Shares Near 54 Year Low
Chrysler to Close Another Plant, Reduce Output
Detroit's Mood Grim as Automakers Face the Brink
Remember What Happened to England's Once Thriving Auto Industry?
Monday, June 30, 2008
Oil Rises to Record on Concern over Iran
Seymour Hersh: Bush Regime Steps Up Its Secret Moves Against Iran
Dow Crash, Dollar, Gold and WAR!
Barclays Warns of Financial Storm as Fed's Credibility Crumbles
BIS Warns of Deep Global Slowdown and Deflation
IMF to Conduct General Examination of US Financial System
Volker: Central Banks Should Not Lose Focus on Inflation
Seymour Hersh: Bush Regime Steps Up Its Secret Moves Against Iran
Dow Crash, Dollar, Gold and WAR!
Barclays Warns of Financial Storm as Fed's Credibility Crumbles
BIS Warns of Deep Global Slowdown and Deflation
IMF to Conduct General Examination of US Financial System
Volker: Central Banks Should Not Lose Focus on Inflation
Saturday, June 28, 2008
S&P 500 June 1999 to June 2008
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Ultimate Worker Freak-Out Video!
Recession, $138 oil, $4.50 Gas Prices, Housing Crash, Mortgage Meltdown...it's enough to drive anyone crazy. I don't know what set this guy off but the timing is probably no coincidence!
Here it is with audio from another angle. Okay, it sounds like they're Russian and this guy is probably disturbed but this could be happening at your friendly neighbourhood mortgage lender/real estate office very soon.
Here it is with audio from another angle. Okay, it sounds like they're Russian and this guy is probably disturbed but this could be happening at your friendly neighbourhood mortgage lender/real estate office very soon.
Friday, June 06, 2008
Friday, May 30, 2008
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Peter Schiff's Inflation Advice
Peter Schiff has been right on housing, gold, and getting out of U.S. stocks. He now offers advice on how to protect yourself against run-away inflation.
Case-Shiller: Prices Fell 14%, Most on Record
Marketwatch Video: A Rocky Ride Ahead for Markets
Record Gas Prices for 20 Straight Days! Prices Top $4 in 11 States
Sharpest Decrease Ever! American Driving Down a Historic 4%!
Germany Calls for Ban on Oil Speculation
Soros: Rocketing Oil Price is a Bubble
When Will Americans Realize the World Has Changed?
Auto Industry Feels the Pain of Tight Credit
83,000 Global Financial Layoffs in One Year; Worst Yet to Come
Out of a Job and Out of Luck at 54
Bank Failures to Surge
Inflation Running at 11.6%, Measured in Pre-1983 Terms
Kunstler: Anxious Hiatus
Marketwatch Video: A Rocky Ride Ahead for Markets
Record Gas Prices for 20 Straight Days! Prices Top $4 in 11 States
Sharpest Decrease Ever! American Driving Down a Historic 4%!
Germany Calls for Ban on Oil Speculation
Soros: Rocketing Oil Price is a Bubble
When Will Americans Realize the World Has Changed?
Auto Industry Feels the Pain of Tight Credit
83,000 Global Financial Layoffs in One Year; Worst Yet to Come
Out of a Job and Out of Luck at 54
Bank Failures to Surge
Inflation Running at 11.6%, Measured in Pre-1983 Terms
Kunstler: Anxious Hiatus
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Straight Talk With Pete Petersen and David Walker
Most of the time, business news is a complete waste of time. You often get bulls and bears yelling at each other over whether the market trend is up or down.
Sometimes, you get magic like in this CNBC segment featuring the legendary Pete Petersen and the former Comptroller General, David Walker, whose quote has been positioned at the top of this blog since its inception. This round table is straight-to-the-point, macro wisdom from two legends that have seen a lot of important trends over their careers. They see tough times ahead and they lay out all the reasons why things will likely get worse before they get better...and they will get better after a thorough cleansing of the financial system and general economy.
Sometimes, you get magic like in this CNBC segment featuring the legendary Pete Petersen and the former Comptroller General, David Walker, whose quote has been positioned at the top of this blog since its inception. This round table is straight-to-the-point, macro wisdom from two legends that have seen a lot of important trends over their careers. They see tough times ahead and they lay out all the reasons why things will likely get worse before they get better...and they will get better after a thorough cleansing of the financial system and general economy.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Friday, May 02, 2008
Gulf States May End Dollar Pegs
US Loses 20,000 Jobs in April; Unemployment Rate Falls to 5%
Mish: April Jobs - Another Report From Bizarro World
Fed Joins With European Central Banks to Battle Credit Crisis ...
... Expands Liquidity Operations
CNBC: 'Great Depression on Wall Street'
Bank of America May Balk on Countrywide Debt Guarantee
Home Depot to Scale Back, Close 15 Stores
S&P Stops Rating Some Mortgage Bonds
US Loses 20,000 Jobs in April; Unemployment Rate Falls to 5%
Mish: April Jobs - Another Report From Bizarro World
Fed Joins With European Central Banks to Battle Credit Crisis ...
... Expands Liquidity Operations
CNBC: 'Great Depression on Wall Street'
Bank of America May Balk on Countrywide Debt Guarantee
Home Depot to Scale Back, Close 15 Stores
S&P Stops Rating Some Mortgage Bonds
Thursday, May 01, 2008
WSJ: Fed Cuts, Signals a Pause
Bloomberg: Fed Cuts Rates, Ready for a Breather
Crudele: Fed Running Out of Room to Help Economy
Kasriel: Recession is Here, Now
US Foreclosures Spike 112% - No End in Sight...
...No Sign of a Bottom
Americans' Income Gains Eroded by Inflation in March
US Firms Layoff 90,000 in April - 19 month high - Led by Financial Firms
Low Consumer Spending Taking Toll on Economy
Starbucks Earnings Fall 21%
Bloomberg: Fed Cuts Rates, Ready for a Breather
Crudele: Fed Running Out of Room to Help Economy
Kasriel: Recession is Here, Now
US Foreclosures Spike 112% - No End in Sight...
...No Sign of a Bottom
Americans' Income Gains Eroded by Inflation in March
US Firms Layoff 90,000 in April - 19 month high - Led by Financial Firms
Low Consumer Spending Taking Toll on Economy
Starbucks Earnings Fall 21%
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Restaurants Feel Sting of Surging Costs, Debt
Whirlpool Posts Lower Profit; Warns on Year; Stock Down 9%
Apple Profit Jumps 36%
Amazon Gains in Slowing Economy - Revs up 37%
Ford Has a $100 Million Profit - Thanks Global Economy & Weak Dollar!
US New Home Sales Plunge More than Expected
US Regulator Fears Wave of Bank Failures
Mike Whitney: Enough with the Rate Cuts Already!
Howard Ruff: It is Too Late. Hyperinflationary Depression on the Way
FTSE Slouches Toward 6,000
London Hit With Moody's "Code Red"
Whirlpool Posts Lower Profit; Warns on Year; Stock Down 9%
Apple Profit Jumps 36%
Amazon Gains in Slowing Economy - Revs up 37%
Ford Has a $100 Million Profit - Thanks Global Economy & Weak Dollar!
US New Home Sales Plunge More than Expected
US Regulator Fears Wave of Bank Failures
Mike Whitney: Enough with the Rate Cuts Already!
Howard Ruff: It is Too Late. Hyperinflationary Depression on the Way
FTSE Slouches Toward 6,000
London Hit With Moody's "Code Red"
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Monday, April 14, 2008
Sunday, April 13, 2008
A blunt former Fed chairman takes on Bernanke
From the Globe and Mail
A few days ago an unusual event took place: Paul Volcker, the mythical U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman from the Reagan years, criticized the policy of the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York.
Just so you grasp how extraordinary this was, you should first understand that normally a past Fed chairman scrupulously avoids saying anything at all about current Fed policy - for the simple reason that the current Fed chairman's words are one of his most important tools: They can sway markets.
This ability does not fade entirely when a Fed chairman leaves.
So when a past Fed chairman speaks, his words can clash with those of the present one and make that one's job difficult. Out of professional courtesy, past Fed chairmen therefore keep quiet; Mr. Volcker especially - the man who hiked interest rates to 20 per cent to kill inflation, at the cost of a deep recession. But last week Mr. Volcker spoke his mind bluntly. He said, in effect, that the current Fed is not doing its job.
This would have been unusual enough. But Mr. Volcker went further. Not only is the Fed not doing its job, he said, but it is doing the wrong job: It is defending the economy and the market, instead of defending the dollar. And just to stick the knife in, Mr. Volcker added that this bad job now will make the real job - defending the greenback - much harder later. It'll cause even greater economic suffering.
In plain words, Mr. Volcker implied that the current Fed is not only incompetent, but that its actions are dangerous.
There is no record of Mr. Bernanke's reaction, nor that of anyone else inside the Fed. But there was plenty of buzz in the market because what Mr. Volcker said amounted to a rousing call to raise interest rates. Yes, raise rates, and do it now.
Can you imagine what this would do to the market? I sure can, which brings me to the gap between physical economic reality as we witness it every day in our physical investigations, and the surreal market chatter we see and hear on TV. This gap has never been wider - but it will inevitably close as markets catch up to reality - as just forecast by former president Ronald Reagan's Fed chairman. Let me cite three items, then go back to Mr. Volcker.
First, commercial real estate. You surely have read about the residential real estate problems - subprime loans syndicated and resold, causing the implosion of several U.S. financial institutions. The writeoffs and damage here total close to a trillion dollars, said the IMF recently. That's about one-seventh of the U.S. gross domestic product, or more than three years of growth.
But what of commercial real estate? I heard recently from some savvy private real estate investors that although commercial real estate fell by 20 per cent, it should fall by a further 20 to 30 per cent before it provides a reasonable rate of return. So whatever economic damage was done to the economy by residential real estate speculation may eventually be equalled by commercial real estate. Say another 10th or seventh of GDP erased, or another two-three years of growth gone.
Second, there's also the war in Iraq. Some U.S. economists recently estimated it has cost about two trillion dollars to date - another two-sevenths of U.S. GDP. That's five more years of GDP growth gone.
And third, we haven't even begun to tally the private equity blowups that are surely coming.
Taken all together, the economic damage spells a very bad and long recession. How to fix it? No problem, say the actions of Mr. Bernanke's Fed. Let's print the missing money - and it doesn't matter if it causes inflation and tanks the dollar. Because that's not our job.
Up to now Mr. Volcker kept quiet, but no more. In his speech he just said, in effect, that the recession is not the Fed's problem. It's the government's. The Fed's job is to defend the currency and fight inflation - exactly the opposite of what this Fed is doing. The solution? Raise interest rates, Mr. Volcker practically said, no matter the consequences now, because if you don't, you'll have to raise them even more later, with even more awful consequences.
Will rates indeed rise? I have no doubt they must. Not now, perhaps, but at the end of this year or the beginning of 2009, with a new president in the White House. The stock market, which usually looks six to nine months ahead, already understands this and may soon react. In fact, when Mr. Volcker's words sink in, the markets are likely to sink as this bear market rally ends.
For surely you understand we are still in a bear market - and only in the beginning of it? Yes, we are experiencing a rally, and like most bear rallies, it is sharp and spiky. But when bear rallies end, they leave a lot of spiked bulls behind - and this rally should be no different. When it is over - in the next few weeks, methinks - the waterfall could continue, as the market begins to digest the inevitability of higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead.
Against all protocol, Mr. Volcker just went out on a limb and warned you of this. I urge you to heed his words.
A few days ago an unusual event took place: Paul Volcker, the mythical U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman from the Reagan years, criticized the policy of the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York.
Just so you grasp how extraordinary this was, you should first understand that normally a past Fed chairman scrupulously avoids saying anything at all about current Fed policy - for the simple reason that the current Fed chairman's words are one of his most important tools: They can sway markets.
This ability does not fade entirely when a Fed chairman leaves.
So when a past Fed chairman speaks, his words can clash with those of the present one and make that one's job difficult. Out of professional courtesy, past Fed chairmen therefore keep quiet; Mr. Volcker especially - the man who hiked interest rates to 20 per cent to kill inflation, at the cost of a deep recession. But last week Mr. Volcker spoke his mind bluntly. He said, in effect, that the current Fed is not doing its job.
This would have been unusual enough. But Mr. Volcker went further. Not only is the Fed not doing its job, he said, but it is doing the wrong job: It is defending the economy and the market, instead of defending the dollar. And just to stick the knife in, Mr. Volcker added that this bad job now will make the real job - defending the greenback - much harder later. It'll cause even greater economic suffering.
In plain words, Mr. Volcker implied that the current Fed is not only incompetent, but that its actions are dangerous.
There is no record of Mr. Bernanke's reaction, nor that of anyone else inside the Fed. But there was plenty of buzz in the market because what Mr. Volcker said amounted to a rousing call to raise interest rates. Yes, raise rates, and do it now.
Can you imagine what this would do to the market? I sure can, which brings me to the gap between physical economic reality as we witness it every day in our physical investigations, and the surreal market chatter we see and hear on TV. This gap has never been wider - but it will inevitably close as markets catch up to reality - as just forecast by former president Ronald Reagan's Fed chairman. Let me cite three items, then go back to Mr. Volcker.
First, commercial real estate. You surely have read about the residential real estate problems - subprime loans syndicated and resold, causing the implosion of several U.S. financial institutions. The writeoffs and damage here total close to a trillion dollars, said the IMF recently. That's about one-seventh of the U.S. gross domestic product, or more than three years of growth.
But what of commercial real estate? I heard recently from some savvy private real estate investors that although commercial real estate fell by 20 per cent, it should fall by a further 20 to 30 per cent before it provides a reasonable rate of return. So whatever economic damage was done to the economy by residential real estate speculation may eventually be equalled by commercial real estate. Say another 10th or seventh of GDP erased, or another two-three years of growth gone.
Second, there's also the war in Iraq. Some U.S. economists recently estimated it has cost about two trillion dollars to date - another two-sevenths of U.S. GDP. That's five more years of GDP growth gone.
And third, we haven't even begun to tally the private equity blowups that are surely coming.
Taken all together, the economic damage spells a very bad and long recession. How to fix it? No problem, say the actions of Mr. Bernanke's Fed. Let's print the missing money - and it doesn't matter if it causes inflation and tanks the dollar. Because that's not our job.
Up to now Mr. Volcker kept quiet, but no more. In his speech he just said, in effect, that the recession is not the Fed's problem. It's the government's. The Fed's job is to defend the currency and fight inflation - exactly the opposite of what this Fed is doing. The solution? Raise interest rates, Mr. Volcker practically said, no matter the consequences now, because if you don't, you'll have to raise them even more later, with even more awful consequences.
Will rates indeed rise? I have no doubt they must. Not now, perhaps, but at the end of this year or the beginning of 2009, with a new president in the White House. The stock market, which usually looks six to nine months ahead, already understands this and may soon react. In fact, when Mr. Volcker's words sink in, the markets are likely to sink as this bear market rally ends.
For surely you understand we are still in a bear market - and only in the beginning of it? Yes, we are experiencing a rally, and like most bear rallies, it is sharp and spiky. But when bear rallies end, they leave a lot of spiked bulls behind - and this rally should be no different. When it is over - in the next few weeks, methinks - the waterfall could continue, as the market begins to digest the inevitability of higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead.
Against all protocol, Mr. Volcker just went out on a limb and warned you of this. I urge you to heed his words.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
IMF Says Financial, Economic Losses May Swell to $945 Billion
Institutional Panic May Fuel Recession
IMF to Sell 12.5% of Gold Stake - 403 Tons!
Asian Inflation Begins to Sting US Consumers
Jim Rogers: The Failure of the Federal Reserve
Greenspan: Credit Crisis Worst in 50 Years
Clif Droke: Now We Know the Real Reasons For the Credit "Crisis"
Monday, April 07, 2008
Jim Rogers - 'Bernanke Is an Idiot'
Jim Rogers is back with advice on investing in commodities and avoiding the U.S. Dollar. The "money" quote is at the end of the interview.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
81% of Americans Say Nation on Wrong Track
US Employers Cut Most Workers Since 2003
Mish: The Fed Uncertainty Principle
Mass State Treasurer: "No matter how bad this year was, 2009 is going to be worse."
Congress Bails Out the Homebuilders
Food Prices to Rise For Years, Thanks to Biofuels
Reuters: Hungry Crowds Spell Trouble for World Leaders
US Employers Cut Most Workers Since 2003
Mish: The Fed Uncertainty Principle
Mass State Treasurer: "No matter how bad this year was, 2009 is going to be worse."
Congress Bails Out the Homebuilders
Food Prices to Rise For Years, Thanks to Biofuels
Reuters: Hungry Crowds Spell Trouble for World Leaders
Friday, April 04, 2008
Quote of the Day
Clearly, the recession that hasn't begun yet is over. At least, that's what all the folks who never saw the recession coming, then decided we were going to have one, and who now say it's over, believe. I know because I heard them say so on TV, time and again.-Helene Meisler
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
The Great Depression - The First Headline
Note: This is not an April Fool's Joke, although I wish that it was.
We knew things were bad on Wall Street, but on Main Street it may be worse. Startling official statistics show that as a new economic recession stalks the United States, a record number of Americans will shortly be depending on food stamps just to feed themselves and their families.
Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.
The increase – from 26.5 million in 2007 – is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the programme and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze.
Emblematic of the downturn until now has been the parades of houses seized in foreclosure all across the country, and myriad families separated from their homes. But now the crisis is starting to hit the country in its gut. Getting food on the table is a challenge many Americans are finding harder to meet. As a barometer of the country's economic health, food stamp usage may not be perfect, but can certainly tell a story.
Michigan has been in its own mini-recession for years as its collapsing industrial base, particularly in the car industry, has cast more and more out of work. Now, one in eight residents of the state is on food stamps, double the level in 2000. "We have seen a dramatic increase in recent years, but we have also seen it climbing more in recent months," Maureen Sorbet, a spokeswoman for Michigan's programme, said. "It's been increasing steadily. Without the programme, some families and kids would be going without."
Monday, March 31, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Our Financial House of Cards
Gallup: Most Americans Say US In Recession; Fear Depression
New Home Sales Fall to 13-Year Low
The Entire State of California is a Declining Market
Factory Orders Drop Unexpectedly
Goldman: Wall Street May Face $460 Billion in Losses
New Englanders Hunker Down into Economic Survival Mode
Gallup: Most Americans Say US In Recession; Fear Depression
New Home Sales Fall to 13-Year Low
The Entire State of California is a Declining Market
Factory Orders Drop Unexpectedly
Goldman: Wall Street May Face $460 Billion in Losses
New Englanders Hunker Down into Economic Survival Mode
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Robert Reich: 20% Chance of Depression
Mish - Now Presenting: Deflation!
Kunstler: A Real Freak Out
Gary North: The Real Story About the Term Auction Facility
Krugman: How Bad Will It Get?
Gary Tanashian: Game Theory
America Was Conned - Who Will Pay!
Dollar Plunges as US Waits for Rate Cuts
Bernanke May Cut Rates by Most Since Volker
WSJ: The Buck Stops Where!?
3-Month T-Bill Yield Below 1% - 50 Year Low!
Manufacturing Activity Shows Declines
Hong Kong Market Looks for Support at 20,000
Mish - Now Presenting: Deflation!
Kunstler: A Real Freak Out
Gary North: The Real Story About the Term Auction Facility
Krugman: How Bad Will It Get?
Gary Tanashian: Game Theory
America Was Conned - Who Will Pay!
Dollar Plunges as US Waits for Rate Cuts
Bernanke May Cut Rates by Most Since Volker
WSJ: The Buck Stops Where!?
3-Month T-Bill Yield Below 1% - 50 Year Low!
Manufacturing Activity Shows Declines
Hong Kong Market Looks for Support at 20,000
Monday, March 17, 2008
Greenspan: Worst Financial Mess Since WWII
Wall Street Waits for the Next Domino to Fall
Bear Stearns Sold for Just $2 Per Share
Fed Acts to Protect Financial System - Slashes Discount Rate on Sunday Night
Gold Rockets; Dollar Slumps Most in 8 Years
US Losing Confidence Vote as Investors Flee
Vicious Circle Ending in a Systemic Financial Meltdown
Wall Street Waits for the Next Domino to Fall
Bear Stearns Sold for Just $2 Per Share
Fed Acts to Protect Financial System - Slashes Discount Rate on Sunday Night
Gold Rockets; Dollar Slumps Most in 8 Years
US Losing Confidence Vote as Investors Flee
Vicious Circle Ending in a Systemic Financial Meltdown
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